The Indonesian government said the Covid-19 pandemic situation was under control, judging from the effective reproduction rate (R-rate or Rt) for the first time during the pandemic, which was below one, which was 0.98.
However, epidemiologists disagree with this because the R-rate is a number to show the speed of transmission, not a measure of whether or not the Covid outbreak is under control.
The decrease in Rt, according to him, also does not necessarily become one of the factors to make easing that can make the public gather.
There are several conditions to declare the pandemic under control, ranging from vaccination rates, reproduction rates, surveillance, to the implementation of strict health protocols.
After being hit by the harsh Delta variant last July to August, the government now says the pandemic situation, especially Java and Bali, has been under control.
Currently, there are no areas in Java and Bali that are in PPKM level 4.
Even for the first time during the pandemic, the R-rate is below one, which is 0.98 - citing the estimation results of the University of Indonesia Faculty of Public Health team - said Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment (Menko Marves) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan.
The government is also conducting trials of opening shopping centers for children under the age of 12, opening cinemas with a maximum capacity of 50% and others in areas where the status of Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) is level 2 and 3.
An example is the easing in Semarang City which fell from level 4 to 2 in September.
The status of PPKM level 2 in Semarang City, Central Java brings fresh air to the community and tourism actors.
Head of the Culture and Tourism Office of Semarang City, Indriyasari said, tourist and entertainment places in his area have been reopened with certain restrictions.
The restrictions include operating hours, the maximum number of visitors is 50% and showing evidence that they have been vaccinated through the Peduli Protect application.
"Our strategy is to increase public trust, show the perception of the city of Semarang that is safe, comfortable, the Covid cases also continue to decline so they can breathe easy and allow people to come with strict health protocols," said Indriyasari to Margi Ernawati who reporting for BBC News Indonesia in Semarang, Central Java, Tuesday (21/09).
One of the changes was felt by Hanna Ristanti, the owner of a cafe in the Tembalang area.
"In the past, we only served take away, now we can eat on the spot even if it's only until 21.00 AM, of course paying attention to health protocols," said Hanna, her nickname.
Although there has been slack, Hanna said his efforts have not been encouraging.
"Turnover has not increased, I hope that the government will care more about business actors, don't make complicated rules so that the economy will recover soon," Hanna continued.
In contrast, the swimming coach, Siti Nurhayati, directly benefited from the slack in public facilities in Semarang.
"Now, in a day, you can train for four hours, so your income also increases. In the past, you only trained one hour per day," said Siti.
The answer is no, says epidemiologist from the University of Indonesia, Tri Yunis Miko.
If a pandemic is controlled or not, he said, it can be seen from the daily curve of Covid-19 cases, the positivity rate, which has decreased steadily in one incubation period of the virus.
It is not seen from the R-rate which is the number of people infected by one case during its infectious period. That is, if the Rt is one, then one person can transmit the corona virus to another person.
"Rt less than one means there is a slowdown in transmission, I agree. But that doesn't mean the outbreak is under control," Yunis said.
Similarly, an epidemiologist from Airlangga University, Windhu Purnomo, said that the decline in Rt did not necessarily bring the pandemic situation under control.
"For example, many countries, Singapore in the north, Australia in the south. They managed to lower Rt, but suddenly it rose again, right," he said.
Windhu added, if the R-rate is below one for a consistent period of 28 days in a row, then the new positive cases can be called "relatively under control".
"At the beginning of the pandemic, our Rt was three, now it's one, it's getting better. But that Rt goes up and down."
"It is influenced by three factors, namely the characteristics of the virus, such as Delta, then the longer the infectious period, the greater the transmission, and the strict implementation of the prokes," he said.
Spokesperson for the Covid-19 vaccination of the Ministry of Health, Siti Nadia Tarmizi also said that although the Rt was below one, the pandemic was not under control.
"Currently, the transmission rate is decreasing, but the threat of an increase in cases and a third wave is still there. Because vaccination has not reached all targets. The reproduction rate is a measure for controlled conditions but this must be seen in a certain period of time," said Nadia.
Nadia also explained that Rt is not used as a factor in making policies, but for final evaluation.
Previously, the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment (Menko Marves) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan said the pandemic situation in Indonesia was under control.
The indicator is to look at the effective reproduction rate (Rt) which for the first time was below one, which was 0.98 - citing the estimation results from the Faculty of Public Health, University of Indonesia team.
In addition, Luhut added, daily cases also show an improving trend - national confirmed cases are below 2,000 and active cases are less than 60,000.
"For Java and Bali, daily cases fell by 98 percent from their peak on July 15. With these improvements, I can say that there are no more regencies and cities that are at level 4 in Java and Bali," he said.
The government, said Luhut, will also make easing, among others, testing the opening of shopping centers for children under the age of 12, opening cinemas with a maximum capacity of 50% at level 2 and 3 areas, and others.
Based on the development of the Covid 19 situation until yesterday, Tuesday (21/09), there were more than 3,200 cases added in one day. This number is much smaller than the previous few months which reached up to tens of thousands of people.
Siti, a resident of Semarang, expressed one question that became the anxiety of some people,
"When can we take off our masks when we gather in public spaces, without any distance restrictions, we can live as usual as before?" asked Siti.
Related to that, epidemiologist Tri Yunis predicts, maybe in the next few years, after going through the pandemic, elimination, and eradication phases.
"Maybe two to three more years. Right now we are still plagued, not yet in elimination," he said.
Meanwhile, an epidemiologist from Airlangga University, Windhu Purnomo, said there are several conditions so that we can take off our masks and live side by side with Covid-19.
The first stage is the R-rate is close to zero for a long time, at least 28 consecutive days without ever touching the number one.
But can't take off the mask just yet. After that, there is the next stage, which is that we all have to be protected with 100% vaccination - which is meant if the infection is not chronic.
"Next, is strengthening supervision by testing and tracing. So if there are positive ones, they can be immediately found, isolated, and those outside are healthy."
"If it can be done, I think we might be able to remove masks like in other countries. Now? We can't," he said.
However, according to Windhu, that hope will be difficult to realize.
In the midst of the decline in Rt and positive cases, the government has instead issued an easing policy that has the potential to increase the number of cases again.
"Today, mobility is the same as the base line last March, it's dangerous. The relaxation causes mobility to increase, followed by non-compliance with procedures, crowds appear, and cases increase," he said.
"So don't be too los dol (without obstacles) even though there are easing, so it's like conditions without a pandemic," he said.
Regarding when to return to normal, the spokesman for the Covid-19 Handling Task Force, Wiku Adisasmito, said that everyone, even experts, did not know for sure.
"For this reason, the best effort being made at this time is to suppress the transmission rate properly as a new form of habit that cannot be separated, considering that we will live side by side with Covid-19 in an undetermined time," he said.
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